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hunk , accounts for 39%of global reserves but Central Asian share is only around 6%. Only about 3%of the global energy trade is accounted for by the Caspian region and the share of CARs is even less. Thus the CARs can only supplement, not supplant West Asian suppliers, whether it is oil or gas.
Drilling Costs. Drilling oil in CARs costs three to six times as much as it does in West Asia. While it can be as low as $1per barrel in Iraq or Saudi Arabia, it would cost up to $5 to produce a barrel of oil from the Northern Caspian. This implies that it is economically attractive to produce oil in CARs only when global oil prices reign above a certain threshold level and being a marginal producer the Caspian region will have to follow the prices set by OPEC and that they will not be in a position to influence prices to any significant extent. While gas production in the region is competitive with the rest of the world, the need to ferry it by long pipelines through difficult terrain offsets the cost advantages.
Connectivity. Unlike West Asia, which enjoys excellent connectivity with energy consumers all over the globe through well established sea routes and tanker infrastructure, the CARS are constrained by geography that limits not only existing ,but also future transit routes to global market.
Quality. The quality of crude from some wells in Caspian region demands extensive processing before it can be consumed. Not all refineries have the processing capacity which constrains the range of consumers who can buy CARs oil even when it is available.
Insurgency. Incipient insurgency in some parts of CARs renders them less attractive as an alternate source of supply. Uneven development of the different countries of the region and the ethnic diversities , instability in Chechnya and Afghanistan, US imposed economic sanctions in Iran are factors that impede safe transportation routes for the regions energy.
Authoritarian Regimes. The CARs tentative and at times whimsical approach does little to inspire confidence among potential investors about stability of the regulatory regimes.
Central Asian Pipelines Routes
The existing Central Asian pipelines are only capable of transporting limited oil and gas to market. Central Asian republics are anxious to sell more oil. Americans, Europeans, Chinese and Russians are keen to buy more, especially from non OPEC countries. Investors from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are also anxious to begin transporting more oil out of Central Asia. Only secure pipelines are lacking. The most promising routes have been identified: (Refer Map.2)[44]
Northern Route. Russia favours a northern route. Kazakhstan would expand its existing pipelines to link them with the Russian network of pipelines. Azerbaijan would build a pipeline from Baku to Novorossisk. Critics worry about the pipeline's path through Chechnya and charge that if the project was successful, Russia would enjoy too great a control over Central Asian oil. [45]
Western Route. Azerbaijan, Turkey, Georgia, and the United States favour a western route. According to one variation, oil and gas would flow to the Georgian port of Supsa. From there, it would be shipped through the Black Sea and the Bosporus to Europe. Turkey has expressed worries about tanker traffic in the Bosporus, and worries about the damage an accident there might do to Istanbul. According to the Turkish variatio
