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get a major chunk of the natural resource pie coupled with the sudden opening of closed and impoverished economies have thrown a gamut of varied challenges to the security of Central Asia.
Destabilizing Effects of Unresolved Disputes Over Water. A real cause of concern in Central Asia is increasing irregularities in water supply due to change in weather patterns caused by global warming .In 2008 a serious drought combined with an extremely cold winter resulted in a compound water-energy-food crisis in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The situation has not improved in 2009. [72]
Ecological Challenges. The shrinking of the Aral Sea has caused forced migration of hundreds of thousands of people and the massive degradation of arable land.[73]
The Rise of Militant Islam. Islamic revival in the CARs has emerged in the form of the Partiya Islamskovo Vozrozhhenia (Islamic Rebirth Party or IRP), which has branches in all the Republics and has the stated objective of creating Islamic republics in Central Asia. Although it has focused on economic hardships and has not yet adopted a militant approach .Poverty and unemployment and ensuing frustration could spark militant fundamentalism.[74]
Authoritarianism. The US led war on terror in Afghanistan has encouraged authoritarian soviet style power structures in these countries. Political opposition is virtually banned in some countries while opposition leaders are subject to intimidation in others.[75]
Regional Destabilization by the Georgia War. The Georgian War was the biggest interventionist act by Russia since its occupation of Afghanistan three decades ago which took the world by surprise. The 'Putin doctrine' has sought the restoration of Russian domination over the former Soviet Union, leaving these republics with a stark choice of accepting either a status of Russian dominion or pushing ahead with independent foreign policies risking Georgia like fate.[76]
Ethnic makeup and unresolved Border Conflicts. Central Asia has more than hundred different ethnicities and even more language groups. Arbitrary border demarcation during the soviet era has complicated the situation especially in the densely populated central Asian Fergana valley belonging to Uzbekistan, Kyrgystan and Tajikistan.[77]
Impact of Drug trafficking. Drug trafficking has seriously destabilized the transit countries and has strengthening the state-mafia nexus and having a serious social impact due to drug abuse. Afghan opium production has seen a 600 fold increase in AIDS cases in Central Asia between 1994 to 2001 due to intravenous drug abuse.[78]
NATO's Eastward Expansion. US interests in taking the NATO to the Russian doorsteps has created further animosity between the two large powers and has further destabilized the region. [79]
Recommendation. India should play a more active role in Central Asia as it has strategic interest in the stability of the region.
CHAPTER VII
INDIA-CENTRAL ASIA ENERGY COOPERATION 印度-中亚能源合作
India is seeking oil assets in countries such as Kazakhstan, Sudan, Vietnam, Iran and Ecuador through Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Videsh Ltd. (OVL). Presently, OVL has stakes in 24 oil and gas projects spread across 14 countries including Vietnam, Myanmar, and Sudan. It is believed that Central Asian Republics can reduce Ind
